Friday 13 July 2007

Major Top Being Made?

Yes, I guess the bulls had one more run in them! I think this is their last gasp though as the momentum of this run is ugly. Note the top momentum indicator that is well below its peak even with price at a new high. The "sell" signal will come if/when the indicator next turns down while still below the previous peak.

Perhaps more worrying is the second indicator with the blue arrow. Note that this tool is failing to confirm the first indicator's most immediate move up.

Minimum requirements for five waves up are now in place. The next couple of trading days will be of utmost importance.

Wednesday 11 July 2007

Wait. Can we go up yet again?


Sure the market turned down yesterday as anticipated. Sure I still believe that the next big move will be to the downside. But I am not quite sure "THE" moment has arrived. Why? My Elliott Wave count. It shows that we still need to complete wave 5 up from the March low.

Hmmmm... wonder if we will surprise the short-term bears and begin to rally upwards again.

Tuesday 10 July 2007

A TIME to Turn?


Yes, I have held a bearish view over the past few weeks as the cash S&P500 has moved sideways. I believe it is called "distribution".


Anyways, today's chart shows that yesterday's high was made at a confluence of a Gann Fan line ( the upward sloping lines from the June 7 low), a Gann price target (the horizontal solid green line), and the 94.1% Fibonacci retracement of the previous swing down.


Seems like a good point for a turn down to me.