SPX Daily Chart - 17 March 2011

     So far the cluster of support between 1265 and 1269 has held. For a developing bounce, the first upside target should be prior TDST support (horizontal dashed green line) at 1286. This is also a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline. Above that would be the short moving average (red) which will be approaching the 50% fib retracement over the next couple of sessions.
     Over the near term my expectation is that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside.
          Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Daily Chart - 16 March 2011

     TDST was confirmed broken yesterday as the SPX slid through all of the identified price targets to date. The expectation now is that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside.
     For today the question is whether we will confirm the break of the targets labeled "3" (TD Trend Factor) and "4" (Long moving average). If these are confirmed broken the next targets are the orange box (1213-1220) and TD Trend Factor at at 1198.76.
     Bottom Line: Let's watch to see if targets 3 and 4 hold. The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Daily Chart - 15 March 2011

     The cash SP500 dropped sharply yesterday morning; finding itself below our cluster (#3, 4) of support targets. At least for yesterday this was far enough, and we rallied higher into the close.
     Was TDST support (1286.12) broken? I can't say that yet, as the close below that level must now be confirmed. If we were to open higher and then not make a new low on Wednesday then the support level will be deemed to have held. If this turns out to be the case we may be looking at a 'V' type bottom - at least in the short term.
     Bottom Line: Let's watch to see if TDST support can hold. The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Daily Chart - 14 March 2011

     Yesterday the cash SP500 almost touched downside target #2 before bouncing. It did fill the gap of January 31/February 1. One way to use this support line is to deem the price action since February 18th as a correction within an uptrend until: 1) TDST Support is broken and confirmed; and 2) a buy setup is formed.
     Whether a Correction or new downtrend, if TDST support can't hold then we watch the cluster of support targets between 1265-70. Also noted is that a 100% projection of the move down from 2/18 - 2/24 aligns with that area.
     Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Weekly Chart - 11 Mar 2011

     By closing below 1329.15 (horizontal purple line) the weekly chart is now bearish after completing a sequential 13 and a possible five wave impulse pattern from the July low.
     On Friday the market bounced from the short (red) moving average. If that support can't hold then the next target on this chart is TDST support at about the 1220 level. Note that the medium (blue) moving average is headed there now. Whether coincidence or not, the fact that this level is at the April 2010 high is interesting as an example of prior resistance becoming possible support.
     Bottom Line: The weekly chart is now in a bearish position. It would take a confirmed break of the risk level at 1363.53 to return this chart to a bullish condition.