We had a clear downtrending day last Friday as the market appears to be breaking out; to the downside, of the 1470 -1490 congestion zone. The upward moving price pulse from the 12/12 low is over at the 12/13 high. The price high of 12/11 is now also a CIT (Change-in-trend) besides being a fractal.
Today I present an update on my Elliott Wave Count from the July high. It shows a developing Contracting Triangle pattern (a-b-c-d-e). The big issue now is whether the “d” wave was complete at the recent December 11 high. If it wasn’t then I may just have the wave degree off. That is, instead of the move from the November 26 low being an a’-b’-c’ zigzag it might be one less degree; an a”-b”-c” zigzag. This would mean that we are now in b’ instead of e; a big difference.
In any event, if wave “d” is in fact complete then we can draw the a-c and b-d trendlines as shown on the chart. Wave “e”, the last leg of the pattern, can not break below the a-c trendline which is at about 1415 now.
Time will tell!
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