Wednesday 27 February 2008

Alternate Daily Price Pulse Scenario

Another uptrending price bar formed on the cash S&P500 daily chart yesterday. It still appears as if the A-pulse is in at the February 13 high and the B-pulse low at 1327.04 on the 22nd. The only other scenario is that the A-pulse is not yet complete (see chart). What if this is the case?

If the A-Pulse is not complete it must be doing so now, as any move above 1396.02 (the February 1 high) confirms that the B-pulse is already complete at the February 7 low. In this scenario we are still in a situation where price has broken through the “C-Y” trendline and generated a price pulse “buy” signal. The “goodness” of this signal would depend wholly on the shape of the next A-B-C-X-Y-Z cycle with the C-pulse providing the biggest thrust upwards. Of concern with the potential shape of the next cycle is that the higher level (weekly and monthly) charts are on technical “sell” signals.

Once the A-pulse completes the B-pulse should hold above the 1316.75 level or a new price pulse “sell” will be generated. However; with the daily chart on a technical “buy” one would have to think that that level would hold on a pullback, and so accumulation of shares would occur with the risk point (stop level) at 1316.75.

Again, the scenario discussed today is only the alternate. Tomorrow I will update the primary daily chart scenario according to price pulse theory.

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