Wednesday 5 March 2008

One last bullish gasp left in this consolidation?

Although we saw strength in the equity markets during the afternoon of both days, Monday and Tuesday show as downtrending price bars on the cash S&P500 daily chart. With price now hovering around the important 1325.19 level it is time to wait and see how the rest of the week develops.

Of great interest to me is the struggle to hold 40 on the daily RSI (see chart). Connie Brown teaches that a trend reversal will often begin with the market holding 40 on the retest. This is where we are now. Another reason to wait and see how the rest of the week develops.

My best guess is that the bulls will now try to rally this market back towards the marked resistance zone where the rally will fail. This, of course, will make those currently short the market sweat quite a bit.

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