Friday 13 March 2009

Time Targets

The cash S&P500 formed another uptrending price bar on Thursday as it pushed through resistance at the Fibonacci cluster from 732-733. Other than price resistance I like to calculate “time” resistance. Gann said that time was more important than price. I agree.

Just as price targets are calculated from previous Elliott waves so can time targets. In the current scenario the first few dates of importance fall out as March 13, 20, 30, April 6 and 13. However, just like the market should not overlap the wave i’ low of 804.3 in price, the current wave iv’ should not last longer than April 10 (associated with a Level 3 PRP).

Choosing amongst these dates is hard. One way is to use Level 2 and Level 1 PRP “due” dates to rule out some of the choices; but that doesn’t work in this case. Finally we can use the dates that “square” price in a Fibonacci sense. March 30 then becomes the choice. Not completing wave iv’ until March 30 while not going above 804 seems strange at this point. Keep in mind these techniques don’t always work! Let’s see what plays out one day at a time.

No comments: