Sunday 3 May 2009

Weekly Chart Update

The rally from the March low has now reached Fibonacci 8 weeks. The first event in this uptrending week was bullish: We broke and qualified the TD Supply line at 875.23 (we made high at 888.70). That supply line has a price projection to 1085.29! However; all is not completely bullish here. There are many events that would lead to the weekly chart pointing to a pullback. The first of which would be the failure to see follow through (making a new high next week) which would negate the just mentioned TD Supply line break. There is also a TD Demand Line looming close by (872.55). Since we closed at 877.52 we are close to breaking and qualifying this line --which would also negate the Supply line break and usher in a pullback.


It should also be noted that we ran into resistance this week: 890 (Gann wheel 2 x 360 from 666 low); 890.4 TDST Resistance, 123.6% of TD Wave 2 @ 893.30 and the medium moving average (882.94).


Also of note is the fact that we failed to close above the 23.6% retracement level (of the decline from the all time high) after breaking it during the week. This sets up the possibility of a pullback if we open below 881.38.


Bottom Line: There just seems to be too many events that could trigger a pullback here; but a nice decline may lead to a good buying opportunity! However …. The trend up must be respected until concrete evidence appears. I will be watching the market for the events listed above to signal such a turn.

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