Thursday 19 November 2009

Expecting a Pullback

With a small range, up trending day yesterday the situation is little changed from Wednesday. I am waiting to see whether we get a price “flip” (close less than the close four sessions earlier) before the TD Setup count reaches the 161.8% level (about 1128). If so then the TD Combo “sell” signal will be canceled rather than just postponed.

I suspect that the signal will end up being canceled since oftentimes a pullback begins within 1-4 sessions of completing a perfected setup (which occurred on Monday). Also note that yesterday’s small decline was enough for the RSI to make bearish divergence with price, as did the Derivative Oscillator. The RSI also bearishly diverged with the Composite Index.

Bottom Line: Still neutral but willing to consider buying on a pullback. I am thinking (based on price pulse structure) that general weakness may prevail until after the Thanksgiving holiday.

*NEW* Technical Analysis of Chart positions:
Dollar Index: Long from 75.32; stop 74.10; weekly chart on perfected buy setup.
Waiting for initial signals on the following charts: Gold Index,10 yr Bond Yield,
Cash SP500 and the CRB Index.

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