Tuesday 24 November 2009

Now we Need to See Some Follow Through

The market gapped higher by a remarkable amount yesterday, rallied to almost a new high and then fell back towards the close. It was enough to qualify a break of the TD Supply Line. Now the bulls need to produce some follow through. If they can’t then the odds would favor the view that a short-term price pulse high is in and the market has entered a decline which should complete by December 2.

Also of note was that yesterday’s rally did create a positive reversal in the RSI. The upward price projection is 1114.46. Let’s watch and see whether it gets filled or not because a failure would have longer-term bearish implications.

Bottom Line: Still neutral but willing to consider a short-term long position if we do in fact continue to pullback from yesterday’s high. Otherwise I am also willing to go consider turning bullish on a close above the November 16 high.

*NEW* Technical Analysis of Chart positions for longer-term positions:

Dollar Index: Long from 75.32; stop 74.10 (weekly chart on perfected buy setup).
World Gold Index: Would close longs on a close below 1145.40.

Waiting for initial signals on the following charts: 10 yr Bond Yield,
Cash SP500 and the CRB Index.

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