Wednesday 2 December 2009

Long Term Investors Should Not Jump In Now

It was an up trending day in the cash S&P500 yesterday. Overall we have now moved sideways for 2 weeks in response to the perfected TD Sell Setup on November 17.

Yesterday we saw that the monthly chart indicated that any move above the November high would signal a continued advance to at least the next TD Trend Factor target of 1145.47 if not the higher long and medium moving averages (1168 and 1195). Such a move would also confirm the break of the weekly TD Trend Factor target of 1079.39 and qualify a break of the weekly TD Supply Line. And so a continued upward move here looks like a continuation move in the bull market. The big question is whether a longer-term trader/investor buys it or not.

Bottom Line: Still neutral but traders might consider taking a short-term speculative long position on a break of 1113.69 with a tight stop. For those interested in the Longer-term (including moi) I think risk is too high here and so I would sit tight.

*NEW* Technical Analysis of Chart positions for longer-term positions:
Dollar Index: Out. (0.65 point loss after 1 trade).
World Gold Index: Out on a close below 1190.5.

Waiting for initial signals on the following charts: 10 yr Bond Yield,
Cash SP500 and the CRB Index.

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