Thursday 6 January 2011

SPX Quarterly Chart

     On this quarterly chart of the cash SP500 the first thing I want to point out is that D-Wave showed a nested five wave impulse pattern within the larger wave III shown by the equivalent analysis on the yearly chart. Wave III (from the 1932 price low) began at the 1974 low and ran to the 1576.09 high of late 2007. This 'nesting' gives us greater confidence that cycle wave IV began from 1576.09. As marked above, the recent low in 2009 was either the end of IV or just the first part; A of IV.
     Next, we should note that the decline from the 2007 high began at the completion of a TD Sell Setup. Many times such a setup is followed by a 1 to 4 bar correction if not an outright change in trend. The correction was five bars .... which fits the correction scenario. The dashed green horizontal line at 960.84 is TDST support and it was clearly broken. The trend is down. Perhaps this is why the yearly price pulse was cautious going forward .... it is possible that the rally from 2009 is of the bear market variety. It could be wave B of IV instead of a wave V.
     Be that as it may, recall that the quarterly price pulse just turned bullish and even a "B" wave can go to a new high. It's time to take a closer look at the rally from the 2009 low and I will begin that tomorrow with a look at the medium price pulse.

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