Friday 25 March 2011

SPX Daily Chart - 24 March 2011

     The cash SP500 immediately moved to the medium (blue) moving average yesterday. This price action cofirms that the 'X' price pulse completed at the March 16 low. Now the bulls; if they want to show they are serious in rallying this market, need to show us a qualified break of the alpha-delta trend line (downsloping dashed red line) which is just above the market.
     Over the near term my expectation continues to be that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside. Two supporting reasons for this view are shown on the chart. Not only did the recent low fail to provide a bullish divergence between the RSI and Composite, the RSI fell into territory reserved for bear markets.
     In Elliott wave terms, if the correction is not over then the March 16 low was most likely wave 'A' . The current upward move is part of wave 'B'.
     Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

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