SPX Weekly Chart - 15 Apr 2011

     After registering a countdown '13' bar the cash SP500 has not exceeded that high for nine weeks, moving essentially sideways as the standard deviation channel (in purple) shows. Recall that if the countdown is going to lead to a change in trend it should become apparent within twelve bars and so time is running out. There is nothing that says a completed countdown must result in a change in trend, and so all we get may be a sideways consolidation.
    It is of note that during the run up from the March 18 low to the retest of the February high the RSI (top pane) moved right into the area reserved for resistance (parallel red lines) in bear markets and then failed at the early April high as price did. The RSI then dropped down to 62 and has now returned into that same resistance area. The RSI has NOT signaled a bear trend on this chart yet, but often times such a signal will begin with a reversal in this area. The bears now want to see price decline with the RSI slipping back below the 63 level. Such an event would signal a bearish divergence between the two points indicated by the arrows.
     Of course there are always two sides to the story. Bulls will want to see the TD Supply line (in red) broken with the RSI pushing up above the 67 level. But I think the burden is still on the bulls here.They were unable to push price above that supply line last week. For this week the only way to qualify an upside break through that line will be to open Monday at or above 1337.49.
     Bottom Line: The weekly chart continues in a bearish position and will need a confirmed break of the 1363.53 risk level to regain a bullish position.