Thursday 18 July 2013

The Retest Continues ...



The daily chart is extremely interesting and subtle right now as we’ve moved sideways over the past few sessions just under the May high.

If the cash S&P500 closes below 1680.19 today (Thursday) then a price flip will be recorded that triggers the TD Sequential “sell” signal that printed bar 13 on July 8th. Instead, if the market resumes the rally without a price flip, any move above the 1692.51 level will give us a new TD Setup and recycle our sequential countdown. As reader Wallfly noted in a comment yesterday, a TD Combo bar 13 could print today giving us another item to watch for.

On the RSI chart (top pane) we have had a bearish divergence between the indicator and price. Please note that this divergence is occurring in the 63-67 zone which often signals that a market is transitioning into a bear phase. The Composite Index (middle pane) has now fallen enough where a turn up here *may* lead to divergence with the RSI.

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