Sunday 29 September 2013

The Level 2 (Intermediate Term) View on Ten Year Bond Yields


Today continues the series of posts on the ten year bond yield. The first three charts in the series were the FoxPulse5, FoxPulse4 and FoxPulse3. The first two views (long and medium-long) were both bullish but each showed that a downward moving (in terms of yields) pulse was underway. The FoxPulse3 (medium term view) turned bearish on September 16th.

The FoxPulse2 (Intermediate term view) chart is shown today with the analysis beginning on July 3rd. It shows a complete trending series of pulses (Alpha – Beta –Delta – X – Y  -Z) that ended on August 27th and brought higher yields. A new series then started on that date. After the FoxPulse3 turned bearish on September 16th, it was a bearish signal on the FoxPulse2 when the Alpha Pulse base (August 27th low at 27.07) was broken. This occurred on September 18th.

Confirmation that we are now in a bear market at this level (FoxPulse2; Intermediate view) is shown by the RSI. It has now broken below the support zone reserved for bull markets.

The price pulse model says that this chart will remain bearish unless the next upward pulse (Delta) breaks the current Alpha peak (29.84).

I will look at the FoxPulse1 chart next. To recap, Levels 5 and 4 are bullish while levels 3 and 2 are bearish on the ten year yield.

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