The Level 1 (Short Term View) on Ten Year Bond Yields

This posting concludes the series of posts on the ten year bond yield. The FoxPulse5 and FoxPulse4 were bullish but each showed that a downward moving (in terms of yields) pulse was underway. Both the FoxPulse3 (medium term view) and FoxPulse2 (Intermediate term) have recently turned bearish.

The FoxPulse1 (Short term view) chart is shown today with the analysis beginning on August 27th. A bearish signal was generated when the Beta – X trendline was broken on September 11th. With the Y pulse not able to exceed the Delta peak we knew we had a new short term series underway from the September 5th high in yields.

It is clear that a bear trend is unfolding and that we are in the final pulse (Z) of the series that began at the September 5th high. That does not mean that the next series of pulses must break the down trend! At this point the chart will only turn bullish if; once the Z pulse completes, the Alpha pulse can break the Delta – Y trendline that is depicted in orange.

To recap, Levels 5 and 4 are bullish while levels 3, 2 and 1 are bearish on the ten year yield. Using the percentages presented September 19th, the aggregate reading on rising bond yields is only 15% bullish at this time.