The Level 1 (Short Term View) on Ten Year Bond Yields

This posting concludes the series of posts on the ten year bond yield. The FoxPulse5 and FoxPulse4 were bullish but each showed that a downward moving (in terms of yields) pulse was underway. Both the FoxPulse3 (medium term view) and FoxPulse2 (Intermediate term) have recently turned bearish.

The FoxPulse1 (Short term view) chart is shown today with the analysis beginning on August 27th. A bearish signal was generated when the Beta – X trendline was broken on September 11th. With the Y pulse not able to exceed the Delta peak we knew we had a new short term series underway from the September 5th high in yields.

It is clear that a bear trend is unfolding and that we are in the final pulse (Z) of the series that began at the September 5th high. That does not mean that the next series of pulses must break the down trend! At this point the chart will only turn bullish if; once the Z pulse completes, the Alpha pulse can break the Delta – Y trendline that is depicted in orange.

To recap, Levels 5 and 4 are bullish while levels 3, 2 and 1 are bearish on the ten year yield. Using the percentages presented September 19th, the aggregate reading on rising bond yields is only 15% bullish at this time.

The Level 3 (Medium Term) View on the Ten Year Bond Yield

Today continues the series of posts on the ten year bond yield. The first two charts in the series were the FoxPulse5 and FoxPulse4. Those views (long and medium-long) were both bullish but each showed that a downward moving (in terms of yields) pulse was underway.

The FoxPulse3 (Medium term view) chart is shown today with the analysis beginning where the FoxPulse4 Y pulse began on May 1, 2013. The pulse structure shows a trending Alpha – Beta –Delta – X – Y formation that just ended at the beginning of this month. Note that going into mid-May the RSI (top pane) broke above the resistance zone reserved for bear markets. Then, after hitting the resistance zone reserved for bull markets in late June, a long series of lower RSI readings ensued while 10 year yields continued to move higher. This long period of bearish divergence was culminated when the currently unfolding Z pulse broke the Beta – X trendline a week ago today.

About to confirm this bearish development is the RSI, which is about to break definitively below the support zone reserved for bull markets.

The price pulse model says that this chart will remain bearish unless the Y pulse peak (29.84) is broken.

I will look at the FoxPulse2 chart next. To recap, Levels 5 and 4 are bullish and level 3 bearish.