Looking at the DJIA from an objective Elliott Wave view:
Starting from the 1974 low of 570.01 (which was a 48 period low) which was identified as the last (Wave 2) low on the next higher time frame (yearly chart):
1. H greater than 12H: 1976.3.
2. L less than 7L: 1977.4. This means that W.1 up ended at the 1026.26 high of 1976.3.
3. H greater than 20H: 1981.2. This means that W.2 down ended at the 729.95 low of 1980.1.
4. L less than 12L: 2002.3. This means that W.3 up ended at the 11,750.28 high of 2000.1.
5. H greater than 33H: 2006.4. This means that W.4 down ended at the 7197.49 low of 2002.4.
6. L less than 12L: 2008.4. This means that W.5 up ended at the 14,198.10 high of 2007.4.
7. H greater than 7H: 2010.4. This means that W.A down ended at the 6469.95 low of 2009.1.
8. 2007.4 high is exceeded: 2013.1. This requires that the W.4 low be moved to 2009.1 since the model requires an A-B-C after a five wave impulse.
A. The chart shown is of the cash S&P500 but is similar to the DJIA.
B. Note that a complete five wave impulse from the 1974 low, which would compose the larger Wave 3, is not yet complete. This meshes with the fact that the yearly chart (last posting) showed the larger Wave 3 not yet completed.
C. The A-B-C pattern from 2000 is either an Expanded Flat or the first three legs of an Expanding Triangle. The difference between the two is that the third leg (down into the 2009 low) would be a five wave impulse in the Expanded Flat scenario but a three wave corrective pattern in the Expanding Triangle. To distinguish which pattern is forming I will take a look at the weekly chart in my next posting.
