More on Momentum Failures

As posted earlier on this blog, it was shown how the monthly S&P500 cash chart was displaying an RSI momentum failure.

Today I present a weekly view. Note the blue arrows. The arrow in the bottom pane of the chart is pointing to the recent highest price close. The arrow in the top pane shows the RSI on the same date at a new high for the move. New high in price, new high in the momentum (RSI). All is well for the bulls, right?

Perhaps not. The middle pane shows a second momentum indicator that was designed to show instances when the RSI failed to diverge at price highs or lows. Note how this indicator made a lower high.

Another reason I am "down" on equities right now.

Developing a Market Map - Part III Continued

Continuing with TIME .... a series of different calculations leads to the attached chart on the weekly cash S&P500. The blue ellipses indicate the preferred "first guess" times for highs and lows. If we are interested in 2008 as the "C" wave low, then the two preferred times are around June and then again at the end of the year.

Note also that an intermediate term low is expected this year and the intervening high in Spring 2008.

Developing a Market Map - Part III

Time. Gann said it was the most important thing. From recent major high/lows there is a confluence in 2008.
1974+34 = 2008; 1982+26=2008; 1987+21=2008; 1998+10=2008; 2000+8=2008; 2002+6=2008. These are straight calculations using Fibonacci numbers and their twins.
The next harmonic of the 4.44 year cycle hits on 2008.67; or August/September 2008.
The next potential turning point low of the PEI model is 2008.225; or early April 2008.

Suffice it to say that I am watching 2008 as potentially the end of wave "C".

More time calculations to come over the next few posts ......