Friday, 21 May 2010

Daily SPX - On the Verge of a 'Sell'

Remember the SPX daily chart? Do you recall that we never got a chance to get a ‘sell’ signal because the break of TDST support (on ‘flash crash’ day) was never confirmed (we bounced right back)? Well, that signal is close to being regenerated. It will take a close below the low of 1065.79. Meanwhile:
- Still waiting on a price flip on daily 10 year bond yield
- GLD, daily chart. A ‘sell’ generated on 5/19 at 1223.80. We hit the intermediate moving average yesterday at 1176.59. Using Parabolic SAR as the stop loss level now. It stands at 1246.35. I think a bounce up is coming.
- SPX, Weekly. ‘Sell’ signal from 1122.27.

The equities, as measured by the SPX, are facing important support levels on both the weekly (1069-1075) and daily (1045-1050) charts. The long term moving average on the monthly chart is now at 1058, right between these two support levels. Can the bulls hold?

Wednesday, 19 May 2010

Ten Year Bond Yield

Today the daily chart of the 10-year Treasury Bond Yield is shown as we have just completed a TD Sequential ‘Buy’ count. As usual the trade trigger would be a price flip. Today that would occur with a close above 35.64. Stop is way below the market at 29.61.
Note the Elliott count that has us in a potential fifth wave. This supports the notion of a reversal here, as does the fact that both the RSI and Composite have not yet confirmed the new price lows. But again….. A price flip is needed before action can be taken.
Finally, daily GLD. We had a price flip yesterday and so this chart is officially on a sell as of the open today. The initial Stop Loss of 1278.1 is no longer relevant - it was the ‘trade pending is still good unless we close above this point‘ marker. Now that the trade has been executed the initial stop should be placed at 1249.7, the recent high. What about a target for profits? The first scenario would be if we now form a full setup without closing below TDST support at 1156.22.

Tuesday, 18 May 2010

Gold Short has new Parameters

The potential short trade on the daily GLD chart has new parameters. We haven’t had a ’price flip’ since completing TD Combo countdown and now we have a new ’setup’ that is more than 100% in price length than the previous setup. This forces us to put our trade execution (based on the sequential) on hold. However …. We now can go short (or exit longs, whichever you prefer) based on the new setup. This only requires a price ‘flip’. For today that means a close below 1243.10.
Besides the weekly SPX which is on a ’sell’, the 10- year bond (yield) is close to registering a completed sequential countdown. I will post that chart tomorrow.