SPX Daily Chart - 14 April 2011

     Yesterday the cash S&P500 reached for the 61.8% retracement level (of the distance from the recent high to TDST Support) but then reversed to once again close above the medium moving average (blue line). If the bulls have their hearts set on a new rally they will have a fight on their hands over the 1324-26 area.
     Bottom Line: The scenario that price has failed the retest of its February high must be respected. The daily chart remains in a bearish mode (since Feb. 22) with the allocation mix at a +50% reading. The chart would turn bullish with a qualified break of 1341.59.

SPX Daily Chart - 13 April 2011

     The cash S&P500 lingered at the medium moving average (blue line) and the 50% retracement level (of the distance from the recent high to TDST Support) yesterday. Nothing new to add from my last post.
     Bottom Line: The scenario that price has failed the retest of its February high must be respected. The daily chart remains in a bearish mode with the allocation mix at a +50% reading. The chart would turn bullish with a qualified break of 1341.59.

SPX Daily Chart - 12 April 2011

     The cash S&P500 found support yesterday near the medium moving average (blue line) at the 50% retracement level of the distance from the recent high to TDST Support.
     Another way to determine whether the February high was the end of a trend is to establish that an Elliott a-b-c sequence began from that point. So far all we have confirmed is the 'a' wave as shown. Today the required level to establish that a complete corrective sequence is underway is a move below the March low, although the required level will be rising over the coming days.
     Price Targets to watch: Upside is the short moving average (red); downside the long (green) moving average.
     Bottom Line: The scenario that price has failed the retest of its February high must be respected. The daily chart remains in a bearish mode with the allocation mix at a +50% reading. The chart would turn bullish with a qualified break of 1341.59.

SPX Daily Chart - 11 April 2011

     We begin today with a review of the last two TD Sell Setups. The first completed on February 11. The associated risk level of 1345.5 was never reached before the price flip of February 22 (shown by the red arrow). There is always an associated 'risk' level with each completed sell setup. If broken in a qualified manner you can say that the odds favor a continue run higher until at least the completion of sequential or combo countdown. The second setup completed on March 31 with a correctly calculated risk level of 1341.59. We had a price flip last Friday (April 8) before a qualified break of that risk level.
     My price pulse work now indicates that the 'y' pulse has completed. Combine this development with the price flip of last Friday and it is quite possible that the market has topped, failing in its retest of the February high. Furthermore, although not shown on the chart, the RSI bearishly diverged with the Composite Index at the last closing high on April 6. Lastly, all of these negative developments have come after the RSI (in its role as a trend indicator) indicated that a bear market began at the mid-February high. In fact, the rally from March 16 never saw the RSI move above the area reserved for resistance in bear markets (shown by the parallel red horizontal lines).
     Bottom Line: The scenario that price has failed the retest of its February high must be respected. The daily chart remains in a bearish mode with the allocation mix at a +50% reading. The chart would turn bullish with a qualified break of 1345.5. First short term downside objective would be the medium (blue) moving average now at 1311.39.

SPX Weekly Chart - 8 Apr 2011

      After registering a countdown 13 bar the cash SP500 has not exceeded that high for seven weeks. However; we are still well above TD Support at 1219.5 and so we can characterize the price action (so far) as corrective rather than a change in trend.
    As explained in the last weekly report, a retest of the February high is underway while the RSI (top pane) has moved right into the area reserved for resistance (parallel red lines) in bear markets. The RSI has NOT signaled a bear trend on this chart yet, but often times such a signal will begin with a reversal in this area.
     Bottom Line: The weekly chart is in a bearish position. As we watch the retest of the February highs keep in mind that it will take a confirmed break of the risk level of 1363.53 to return this chart to a bullish position.