Another Test of Resistance

Nothing new to report today. Although the range was quite a bit smaller than Wednesday we had another uptrending day on the daily chart of the cash S&P500 Thursday. After holding the short (red) moving average at yesterday’s low we are now poised to test the long (green) average. The X-pulse is now complete at the 1324.35 low on April 15. The “sell signal” line on the price pulse model now changes from the previously static 1312.81 level to the trendline connecting the B and X-Pulse lows.

Now we watch for another round of important retests of previous highs. Levels to watch are the 1396.02, 1388.34 and 1386.74 levels. Breaking the highest of these would be quite bullish.

A Bull Charge?

Yet another extremely strong day in the equity market as an uptrending day was formed on the daily chart of the cash S&P500. After holding fast to intermediate (blue) moving average we surged past the short average and are now reaching for the long (green) average. The X-pulse will be proven complete at the 1324.35 low on April 15 if we exceed 1367.24 today.

What if that happens? The “sell signal” line on the price pulse model changes from the previously static 1312.81 level to the trendline connecting the B and X-Pulse lows. More importantly we will then be poised for another round of important retests of previous highs. Levels to watch are the 1396.02, 1388.34 and 1386.74 levels. Breaking the highest of these would be quite bullish. Let's see if the bulls can do it.

Now We Watch The X-Pulse

Yesterday’s price bar on the daily chart of the cash S&P500 was “outside”; making both a lower low and higher high than Monday’s bar. Price continues to hold on to the intermediate (blue) average. I am now calling the C-pulse complete as the high of April 7.

What next? We now watch for the completion of the X-pulse. The price pulse model will issue a “sell” signal if we slip under the 1312.81 level during the current X-pulse decline. We will know the X-pulse is complete if we break 1367.24 to the upside.

In terms of the EWP, I am calling the current decline from the April 7 high as wave 1 of C down. See Monday’s posting for a graphical picture of the wave count.

Looks Like the C-Pulse High Is In

A downtrending bar was formed on the latest daily chart of the cash S&P500. After failing to hold the short (red) moving average we are now barely holding onto the intermediate (blue) average. It is now almost certain that the C-pulse high was made on April 7. The price pulse model will issue a “sell” signal if we slip under the 1312.81 level during the current X-pulse decline.

Weekly Chart Turns Negative

The latest weekly cash S&P500 price bar is uptrending with a lower close – a “Reversal” bar. This reversal came right at the 1.5 standard deviation channel and has caused a “negative reversal” to be formed between RSI and price. A minimum decline to 1263 is anticipated on this signal.

Note that the Elliott Waves depicted by the price pulse model generally align with the Change-In-Trend points marked on the weekly chart by the green ellipses. I have also put in my “guess” as to the wave count from the October 2007 high. Of the possible choices I chose the a-b-c-x-a-b pattern because higher level price pulse model signals came in with the January 2008 low and February 1, 2008 high.

Bottom line: I now expect the S&P500 to retest the January and March lows.