Technical Damage Noted

After making high on Monday the cash S&P500 sold off sharply late in the day. Follow-through to the downside continued on Tuesday as we made a downtrending bar. In Elliott terms this top would be wave “a” of the next a-b-c pattern after the first a-b-c-x from the March 17 low.

The high on Monday came with technical damage. The RSI not only made a negative divergence (sell signal) but was turned back in the area where bear market rallies find resistance. The DeMarker (13) indicator also fell from above the 70 level indicating a “high risk” area had been reached (in the short term).

At this point I will stick with the roadmap presented Monday. And with that it is time for holiday. I will return in a few weeks. Take care.

The Next A-B-C

Today’s chart lays out my roadmap of what I expect the cash S&P500 to do over the coming weeks. As Anonymous said in response to Friday’s posting, the market still looks a bit toppy here even after breaking 1422 by a few points. I agree and expect a pullback to commence from these levels or slightly higher. In Elliott terms this little top would be wave “a” of the next a-b-c pattern after the first a-b-c-x from the March 17 low.

Next will come the “b” wave that will retrace the advance from May 9 quite a bit. It should complete next week. Finally, the “c” wave should reach for the 1450 Fibonacci target laid out on the chart around June 12. The a-b-c pattern from May 9 to June 12 is thus expected to be a “Flat” and will complete a “Double Three” a-b-c-x-a-b-c from the March 17 low.

At the conclusion of the “Double Three” I then expect a deep correction but not new lows.

I present this outlook if only to try and keep myself honest. Sometimes I feel that my extremely gloomy outlook on the fundamentals of this economy drive me to incorrectly bearish Elliott Wave scenarios. I need to stay focused on developing a more objective approach to my market analysis.