Price Now at Weekly Chart Resistance

Although it was not as strong a day as either Monday or Tuesday, it was still another up trending day in the cash S&P500 market. We had a qualified breakout of the TD Supply Line (down sloping dashed red line on the chart), which in all likelihood will be confirmed today if we can move above yesterday’s high. The price projection associated with confirmation is 1101.15.

Since price has moved above 1069.62 I am forced to reconsider my near-term bearish stand. With the market right in the weekly resistance zone of about 1066-1072, and with momentum failing on all indicators (RSI, Composite, Derivative Oscillator) on both the daily and weekly time frames, I can‘t turn bullish here. Call me neutral.

Today I will watch to see how price fares in the weekly resistance zone and then there is an opportunity to reassess the weekly chart over the weekend.

Hesitating at Resistance ... Bulls Poised to Try Again

It was a day of hesitation as the cash S&P500 formed an “inside” price bar on the daily chart. This price action nullified the breakout of the supply line mentioned yesterday and has established a new one (down sloping dashed red line). For today we will have a qualified breakout only with an opening price of 1056.93 or greater.

Especially with the way the futures look this morning, it is certainly still possible for the bullish camp to regain control of this market. It is still imperative for them to move price back above resistance … on the weekly chart that is at about 1066-1072. As discussed above we are on the verge of breaking out from the resistance zone on the daily chart.

Bottom Line: As you know I am in the bear camp over the near-term and I have stated that it will take a move above the September 29 high of 1069.62 to get me to even consider turning bullish. I may have to begin that consideration quite soon! Let’s see what today brings.

Testing Resistance

It was another strong up trending day in the cash S&P500 market. Yesterday I stated that “If the bullish camp is to regain control of this market it will then be imperative for them to move price back above resistance … on the weekly chart that is at about 1066-1071. The daily chart shows a resistance zone from 1052-1056.” Yesterday’s high was at 1065.55 (right in the weekly resistance zone) and the close 1054.72 (right in the daily chart zone). Now we will see whether the bulls can punch through.

The supply line (down sloping dashed red line) was broken and qualified yesterday. To confirm that break today we must open and close above 1053.82 and break yesterday’s high. If we do that the upside price target is 1098.23 - a new high.

Bottom Line: As you know I am in the bear camp over the near-term and I have stated that it will take a move above the September 29 high of 1069.62 to get me to even consider turning bullish. Let’s see what today brings. The point where I would say the bull run from March is in trouble is currently at 978.51.

Bulls Hold Gap & TDST Support (At least for Now)

The bulls were anxious to get a rally started as they didn’t even wait for prices to get into the gap area of 1016.5 -1018.5. Friday’s low of 1019.95 was apparently close enough to declare the gap as support, and we had a fairly strong up trending day on Monday.

Holding at a support level is only the first step in proving that a deeper correction has not started. If the bullish camp is to regain control of this market it is imperative for them to move price back above resistance … on the weekly chart that is at about 1066-1071. The daily chart shows a resistance zone from 1052-1056.

Bottom Line: Even with a rally this week I will remain in the bear camp over the near-term. It will take a move above the September 29 high of 1069.62 to get me to even consider turning bullish. Let’s see what the bulls can do. The point where I would say the bull run from March is in trouble is currently at 978.51.

Bulls Looking For Support

Since Thursday I have presented an overview of the new longer-term charts. To recap: The quarterly chart indicates that the bear market rally from March is maturing and that long-term investors should not yet be worried that they have “missed the bottom“. Although I can’t claim that the maturing rally from the March low is complete, the monthly chart shows that the forty point area between 978 and 1020 is the current ground the bulls must hold.

We have declined to the top of that area (low of 1019.95 on Friday) and the weekly chart shows two salient points for this coming week. First, the TD Demand Line will not be qualified if broken. Second, the Short Moving Average will be at about 1014. These two features should provide support early in the week. Note that these two features on the weekly chart coincide with the TDST support line and gap on the daily chart at the 1016-1019 level.

If the bullish camp can hold that support it will then be imperative for them to move this market back above resistance … on the weekly chart that is at about 1066-1071. The daily chart shows the Medium moving average at about 1037 today and a resistance zone at 1054-1059.

Bottom Line: Even if a rally were to develop over the coming week I will remain in the bear camp over the near-term since at this point it will take a new high to get me to consider turning bullish. The point where I would say the bull run from March is in trouble is currently at 978.51.