Trendline Continues to hold

It appears that just peeking over the applicable trendline can not be called a “trendline break”. If you calculate the “C-Y” trendline on the Intermediate price pulse chart, it was at 1367.08 yesterday. The high on the cash S&P500 was 1367.94 but I think we would all agree that the ”C-Y” trendline, in combination with the intermediate term moving average, turned the rally back yesterday. I will look at the new weekly chart over the weekend.

Add a Moving average to the Mix

Now, besides the “C-Y” trendline on the Intermediate price pulse chart, we can also add the intermediate term average to our list of things to watch. That moving average is shown in blue on today’s chart. With the cash S&P500 bouncing off it’s low yesterday and closing near the high we are now challenging both lines.

Two things foremost in my mind as the challenge occurs: 1) The weekly chart is negative as it sits in “sell” mode; and 2) What constitutes a real, vice false, trendline break? I will look at the latter question in tomorrow’s post if necessary.

You Still Didn't Break that Trendline, Did You?

Not much to add today. The cash S&P500 formed an uptrending price bar yesterday but closed well off the high and below the open. We still haven’t broken the “C-Y” trendline on the Intermediate price pulse chart and so we continue to wait for confirmation that the retest of the January 23 low is complete.

Brief Weekly Update

Just a short note on this President’s Day Holiday. In my system the weekly chart remains on a technical “sell” signal. The latest weekly bar on the cash S&P500 can be classified as “inside” and the low made the week of January 25 is now defined as a price CIT (Change-In-Trend). The last few bars have now formed a contracting pattern known as the “Arrow”. This indicates that the market will break out of its consolidation over the next two weeks. Beware of false breaks before the actual move occurs!