SPX Daily Chart - 3 March 2011

     Yesterday's strong uptrending day was the second time that the combination of the medium (blue) moving average and wave 2/4 trendline have supported the market. This makes it a good time to review where we stand in relation to the daily chart's risk level. That level is at 1345.5 (dashed horizontal blue line) and is associated with the last TD Sell Setup recorded on February 11. A qualified break of that level would turn the daily chart back bullish.
     Bottom Line: All charts bullish except for the daily and so the Time frame Mix is at +75%. This value ranges from 0 to 100 and gives me a long-term cash allocation view of the equity markets.

SPX Daily Chart - 2 March 2011

     Right now it certainly appears that the fight is over the 1310.87 level which is important for Friday's close. The index is also attempting to hold the medium (blue) moving average. If it can't hold then TDST Support is objective #2 at about the 1286 level.
     Bottom Line: All charts bullish except for the daily and so the Timeframe Mix is at +75%. This value ranges from 0 to 100 and gives me a long-term cash allocation view of the equity markets.

SPX Daily Chart - 1 March 2011

     Over the last few sessions the area of interest was just over 1325 on the cash SP500 where the short (red) moving average lined up with the 61.8% Fib retracement. The break of that area was'nt qualified and the index has retreated back to the medium (blue) moving average and wave 2/4 trendline (in orange). This same combination held the market on February 24. Will it do so again? If not, TDST Support is objective #2 at about the 1286 level. Remember that 1310.87 will be important at Friday's close.
     Bottom Line: All charts bullish except for the daily and so the Timeframe Mix is at +75%. This value ranges from 0 to 100 and gives me a long-term cash allocation view of the equity markets.

SPX Monthly Chart - Feb 2011

     The monthly chart of the cash SP500 completed a TD Buy Setup in February of 2009. The market subsequently rallied. After a TD Sell Setup nearly a year later there was a consolidation phase followed by a resumption of the rally. We have now completed a TD Combo countdown to bar #13 in February 2011. In my work this is not a "sell" signal. That requires both a price flip (within the next year) and monthly price pulse sell signal; and both must occur before the signal risk level of 1402.02 is qualified as broken. Of note is prior TDST resistance at 1404.05, which reinforces the notion that the risk level area is of importance. Currently a price flip in March would require a close below 1180.55. The price pulse would need (at a minimum) a print below 1261.7.
     If the March 2009 low started a new Wave pattern then we are currently in the third wave of a five wave impulse pattern or wave 'C' of a zigzag.
     One thing I will be tracking closely is the notion put forward by Connie Brown that signals 'roll downhill'. The implication being that weekly and daily signals are suspect without the higher time frame signal in place. If we rally back to new highs over the next few days this would be an instance where her rule of thumb was valuable indeed.
     Bottom Line: The monthly chart remains in a bullish position during March unless the criteria noted above are fulfilled.

SPX Weekly Chart - 25 Feb 2011

     The weekly chart (shown above) has completed a sequential 13 and is showing the completion of a five wave impulse pattern from the July low. As mentioned last Thursday the uptrend in the weekly price pulse chart has been broken. All that is needed now for the weekly chart itself to turn negative is a price flip. A close this Friday under 1310.87 (horizontal purple line) will do the trick.
     Of course this market does not have to go down, and in fact until it is negative the weekly chart remains in a bullish position. What price action would signal that this is just a shallow pullback? Any rally this week that prints above 1355.43 would put the sequential 13 on hold.
     Bottom Line: While watching the daily chart this week we can easily keep an eye on whether either of the two key weekly levels (1310.87 & 1355.43) come into play. But first, a quick update to the monthly chart will be presented tomorrow.