SPX Daily Chart - 24 March 2011

     The cash SP500 immediately moved to the medium (blue) moving average yesterday. This price action cofirms that the 'X' price pulse completed at the March 16 low. Now the bulls; if they want to show they are serious in rallying this market, need to show us a qualified break of the alpha-delta trend line (downsloping dashed red line) which is just above the market.
     Over the near term my expectation continues to be that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside. Two supporting reasons for this view are shown on the chart. Not only did the recent low fail to provide a bullish divergence between the RSI and Composite, the RSI fell into territory reserved for bear markets.
     In Elliott wave terms, if the correction is not over then the March 16 low was most likely wave 'A' . The current upward move is part of wave 'B'.
     Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Daily Chart - 23 March 2011

     Although the cash SP500 continues to trade near the short (red) moving average, it has now confirmed its previous close above the TDST support line at 1286. Any move above Monday's high of 1300.58 will mean that the x pulse most likely ended at the March 16 low. Such a continued climb would point to the medium (blue) moving average at 1312. Key to any longer-term bullish hopes would be a qualified break of the alpha-delta trend line (downsloping dashed red line) which is at about 1313 today.
     Over the near term my expectation continues to be that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside. In Elliott wave terms, this means that if March 16 was a low it was most likely wave 'A' of a larger correction. The current upward move is part of wave 'B'.
          Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Daily Chart - 22 March 2011

     Resistance was provided by the short moving average (red) yesterday and the previous close above the TDST support line at 1286 was not qualified. Does this mean the bounce is over? No. It only implies that the bulls are being challenged at this point. A continued climb would next point to the medium (blue) moving average at 1312. Key to any longer-term bullish hopes would be a qualified break of the TD Supply line (downsloping dashed red line) which is at about 1314 today.
     Over the near term my expectation continues to be that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside. As of now this can not happen until early April.
          Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Daily Chart - 21 March 2011

     The bounce that began last Wednesday morning hit the first upside target (TDST support -horizontal dashed green line) on Friday. The second target was the short moving average (red) which was hit yesterday. A continued climb would next point to the medium (blue) moving average at 1312. Key to any bullish hopes here would be a qualified break of the TD Supply line (downsloping dashed red line) which is at about 1317 today.
     My thinking is that this is just a bounce and not a move to new highs. The two indications that this thinking is wrong would be a qualified break of the just mentioned supply line followed by a break of the March 3 high which is labeled as a delta pulse. In price pulse theory this point should not be broken if the larger downward pulse has not yet completed. Over the near term my expectation is that a buy setup will have to form before we can make a meaningful move to the upside. As of now this can not happen until early April.
          Bottom Line: The daily chart remains bearish with the Timeframe Mix at a +50% reading.

SPX Weekly Chart - 18 Mar 2011

     There is not much new to report at this time frame. After registering a countdown 13 bar the cash SP500 has fallen for a month.
     It appears that the next target on this chart is TDST support at about the 1220 level. Note that the medium (blue) moving average is moving towards that level now. Whether coincidence or not, the fact that this level is at the April 2010 high is interesting as an example of prior resistance becoming possible support.
     Bottom Line: The weekly chart is in a bearish position. It would take a confirmed break of the risk level of 1363.53 to return this chart to a bullish position.