Ten Year Bond Yields (Daily)

     From the October 8 low the ten year yield as rallied nicely and is now in either wave '3' of an impulse or wave 'c' of a zigzag. We have not yet seen a complete TD Sell Setup during the advance, and would not expect the wave pattern to end until we complete one.

Ten Year Bond Yields (Weekly)

     Today's look at the yield of the 10 year bond is most interesting from a TD Sequential point of view. But first a quick note on the wave structure.
     Once a 21 bar price low was recorded after the end of wave 'b' on April 9 we could look for the end of wave 'c'. This occurred on May 7. Wave 'c' was certainly complete once we had a 13 bar price high after that point, which just happened on November 19. Thus we can say that a complete Flat pattern has played out from the June 2010 high.
     Wave 'a' of this flat was accompanied by a TD Buy Setup (the number 9) and bullish divergence between the RSI and Composite indices (shown above the price chart). We then had a nearly 100% retracement rally to the wave 'b' high.
     A TD Countdown 13 posted on June 25 but, although accompanied by a RSI/Composite divergence was not followed by a 'price flip'. Instead a new TD Setup followed which completed on August 20. After a minor corrective bounce it was followed by a new low. However, since it had another RSI/Composite divergence with it we were justified in placing a buy stop loss at 24.26 (the horizontal cyan line on the price chart). This line never had a confirmed break and then a final (third in the series) RSI/Composite bullish divergence led to the current rally and the end of the Flat pattern discussed above.
     Tomorrow we will look at the daily chart to see what has happened since the end of the Flat.

Ten Year Bond Yields (Monthly)

     Today's post continues the examination of the ten year bond yield begun yesterday. On the monthly chart shown above (which begins Jun 07) a TD Buy Setup completed (indicated by the number 9) in Apr 08 and was followed by a 50% retracement rally. After that there have been no other setup or sequential countdown milestones. Towards the end of the chart we can see that countdown bar #12 was posted in Sep 10 and a buy setup bar #8 in Nov 10.
     There are three Elliott Wave counts viable from the June 2007 high. The one depicted in pink is a developing Double Three (a-b-c-x-a-b-?); the one in gold a Triangle (A-B-?-?-?) and the one is silver a new corrective pattern (Flat or Triangle) that begins at the Dec 08 low. Note that with all of these counts the action over the past few months is important - did an Elliott Wave pattern end recently?
     I will focus on answering that question with a look at the weekly chart in the next posting.

Ten Year Bond Yields (Quarterly)

     Today starts a series on the U.S. Government 10 year bond yield, but with a different twist, as I will focus a bit more on DeMark indicators. Please refer to http://www.marketstudies.com for more information on these indicators.
      Starting from the swing high in 2Q2007, we had a Buy Setup complete (bar #9 marked) in 1Q2009. This caused a TDST resistance line to be put in place at the 53.16 level (red dashed horizontal line). Whenever a buy setup is finished one should anticipate at least a retracement rally, and this is what happened here.
     Notice that the bond yield ran into resistance twice at the 61.8% fibonacci level. The first time it was in conjunction with the short moving average (2Q2009) and the second time in conjunction with the medium moving average (2Q2010). With the resistance being strong it appears that the market now wants to retest the recent lows.
     Also note that from our 2007 starting point we cannot find a price bar with a high greater than any of the four price bars prior to it. This means that we cannot find an Elliott Wave in this chart.
     The analysis will continue next time with the monthly chart.

Elliott Wave - CRB Index (Daily) - 3 Dec 10

I will end the current series of postings on the CRB index with a daily chart depicting the strong advance from the May 2010 high. My Elliott Wave count shows this market in wave 'iv' of a larger wave '3'.