SPX Weekly Chart - 28 Jan 11

     How has Friday's sell off in the cash S&P500 affected our technical work? Let's first examine the weekly chart (see above). The combo 13 which printed on 12/31/10 was associated with the setup 9 posted on 4/16/10 and negated yesterday when we made a low above the associated risk level of 1273.72. This negation made the setup of 11/5/10 the new active setup. It had its own combo 13 print on 1/14/11. This is now the active combo signal and has a risk level of 1324.3.
     The other development on Friday of importance is that the beta - x trendline has been broken. This means that an actual "sell" signal will be generated with a weekly price flip; a close less than the close four price bars earlier - 1271.50.
     I will take a look at either the daily or monthly chart on Tuesday.

Weekly Chart Update - 27 Jan 11

SPX Daily Chart - 26 Jan 11

     Yesterday's uptrending price bar moved above the January 18th high and has negated the pending Combo sell signal. As far as TD signals go we must wait for a new sequential or combo countdown to complete. Per the Price Pulse, the two day decline into the 20th marks a beta pulse and we are now in a delta pulse. In this formation a signal would only be generated with a move below the 1271.26 mark of January 20th.
     Bottom Line: Daily chart of the cash SP500 remains in a bullish position.

SPX Daily Chart - 25 Jan 11

SPX Daily Chart - 24 Jan 11

     The daily chart is at a decision point. TD Combo 13 was printed on January 3rd. A sell signal, if it is going to occur, will usually come within twelve bars. That time period is shown by the two vertical blue lines. The alpha pulse high is shown within that time period - does that mark a tradeable high? The daily price pulse is not much use here as a sell signal will only come if the current beta pulse drops below the z pulse low of late November. Waiting for such confirmation would require giving away quite a few s&p points.
     Looking at other TD Developments: We have had a price flip (on Jan 19th) following the alpha pulse high but have still not closed below the TD Reference close which is shown by the horizontal purple line at about 1274. Note that a close this Friday below 1284 would be below the weekly beta - x trendline.
     Bottom Line: A move above 1296.06 would kill off any potential daily chart sell signal associated with the TD Combo 13. A close below the TD reference close would keep trading activity focused on the weekly chart.

SPX Weekly Chart - 23 Jan 11

     The cash SP500 is in an Intermediate degree Y pulse from the brief consolidation of late November. A weekly closing price below the intermediate beta-x trendline (1284.08 this week) would warn of a retracement towards the medium term beta-z trendline which currently sits at about 1090.
     As for the corresponding Weekly DeMark Chart ... We have been discussing the risk level associated with the Combo 13 bar over the last couple of weeks. That level is shown on the chart as a cyan horizontal line which sits at 1273.72. My personal preference is to require a weekly low to print above this point before ruling out the validity of the Combo signal. Since this hasn't happened the chance for a weekly sell signal still exists. A close this Friday below 1257.64 would produce both a price flip and trendline break.
     Bottom line: While we discuss what it would take to turn the weekly chart negative it is imperative to keep in mind that actual Price action on a weekly basis remains in a bullish position.