Of interest is the linear regression line from August 6 (shown in the chart as orange), where I believe the first Elliott wave down from the all-time high completed. That regression line has a measly -0.3 slope indicative of how “flat” the action has become – even though to get to this point we’ve gyrated tremendously. Choppiness resulting in an overall flat market is one of the trademarks of a contracting triangle (green lines on chart). With the technical indicators I follow still bearish I’ve got to stick with the idea that the next move (thrust) out of the triangle will be down. The moving averages (blue line) on both the daily and weekly (not shown on the chart) time frames are giving resistance today at 1470. A Gann line lies there as well and the 78.6% retracement of the last swing is in the immediate vicinity.
With the Globex futures already up 12 points, it looks like we will either reverse off of the opening pop or my scenario will be blown out of the water.
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