Although the price bar from yesterday must be classified as “uptrending” it was not the strongest day in history. In fact, our swing indicator remained negative and so the price pulse down is still in effect from Tuesday’s high. It was also a Reversal Day since we made a new high but closed below the open and yesterday’s close. My stop was hit on SH during Thursday.
Note on today’s chart how the long (green) and medium (blue) moving averages contained the price action. My ongoing belief is that we made a short-term (or greater) low on Wednesday. If the market can exceed yesterday’s high today the odds become 50/50 that the move from 10/11 is over. If we can keep the rally going into early next week I will become even more convinced.The bearish case is that an a-b-c correction is not the correct interpretation from the high. That count would be a 1-2-3 with the last few days being wave 4. This Elliott count would require a move to new lows over the next few days.
Bottom Line: Still waiting for a technical “buy” signal, or even a price fractal low or Change-In-Trend (CIT) of the price pulses. On the sidelines for now.
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