An “outside” price bar with a lower close formed on the cash S&P500. After a positive opening (which got me long in SPY) we reversed and ended badly (which got me stopped out for another loss in SPY). The development of my swing trading strategy is not progressing all that well!
In retrospect, yesterday’s statements that “A negative is that the market can’t afford to hesitate (turn down on a daily closing basis) here or negative reversals would form in the RSI”, and “Another huge concern is that the positive reversals on the weekly chart have been negated and that time frame remains on a technical “sell” signal” were the relevant analysis tidbits amongst the noise. At issue is how could I have done better by clinging on to that information rather than the bullish indicators that I did glom onto?
One way would be to let the higher time frame hold sway over the shorter. That is, since the weekly chart is on a “sell” I should only take daily short trades. Under that scenario I would not have gone long the SPY. As of this morning that would also mean I can’ consider a long position. Not that I would want to anyway as all the technicals are now weak.
Today I present the “in progress” weekly chart. Of note is the long (green) moving average which lies just below the market. Will we find support here? We did in August. Yesterday I got a comment to my post predicting that wave 3 (of C) would end at 1399. I must admit that we are in the third price pulse down (the blue lines) of what I believe to be “C”. I also have a Gann target (horizontal green line) at 1399 which is in the target box I have been eying for a while.
I will watch to see what happens whilst I lick my wounds.
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