Thursday, 28 February 2008

If we dip here would you be a short-term buyer?

An uptrending bar was formed on the daily chart of the cash S&P500 yesterday. My primary price pulse interpretation is shown in today’s chart. If the A-pulse is in at the February 13 high (likely but still not confirmed) then the B-pulse low is also in and price is rising in a C-pulse.

Theoretically the C-pulse is the strongest in the entire A-B-C-X-Y-Z cycle and should move prices away from the A-pulse peak of 1369. This idea, and the fact that we are hesitating below the last intermediate peak of 1396.02 should cause the bulls some concern but is certainly not fatal to their case. Concern so soon after getting daily price pulse “buy” permission? Actually, that is the most gut-wrenching aspect of the theory for me -- it urges one to accumulate on weakness so soon after just turning bullish. That is, after “buy” permission was granted on February 25 when the A-peak was exceeded it will now not be negated unless we fall below last Friday’s low of 1327.04. For instance, if yesterday’s high was the C-pulse peak then one would be expected to accumulate on any X-pulse dip here with a stop at 1327.03. The expectation would be that the market will go higher than the C-pulse peak in the subsequent Y-pulse.

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