Wednesday, 25 June 2008

Still Watching for Proof of a Reversal


Yesterday the cash S&P500 made an “outside” day. Such a formation following an “inside” day is known by Jeffrey Kennedy at Elliott Wave International as a “Popgun” pattern. It indicates that an impulse wave may be dead ahead. In the current case it implies that we may be staring at a reversal to the upside.

Although the technicals would be supportive of a reversal here; and an apparent Impulse pattern is near completion from the May 19 high, I want to see more proof. Why should I be definitive when the market itself is indecisive? We have had two spinning top candlesticks in a row now – indicators of indecision and a potential reversal. Potential being the key word.

One final reason to hesitate on becoming a bull here: Since the move down from May 19 is five waves we know that at least one more five wave pattern to the downside awaits after any corrective bounce.

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