Wednesday, 18 June 2008

Will the Pullback Hold 1331?


Notice how early in the day price action was clearly out of the price channel (purple) associated with the price pattern from the May 29 high to June 12 low. This increases our confidence in the associated wave count.

After reaching for the short (red) moving average the cash S&P500 reversed and closed lower on an “outside” day. This price action is indicative of a small pattern ending; in this case an impulse from the June 12 low of 1331.29. As this was a five wave move up (it must be a Leading Diagonal since waves one and four overlap) we can expect at least one more rally after the current pullback.

Best support on that pullback lies at 1343-45 today and then at 1335-37. Break those levels and all that is left is a retest of the low at 1331-33. A move below 1331.29 means that the alternate Elliott count (impulse scenario from May 19) must be preferred.

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