Welcome to a new month and quarter. The last day of the old month/quarter saw the cash S&P500 index stabilize with an uptrending day. Our hypothetical stop point was hit at 1287.89.Now what? As I write and ponder this morning the markets are crumbling in Europe and the futures on the U.S. market are down sharply. The cash S&P500 may be testing its March lows (and my forecast for them to hold) very quickly!
The only way my analysis would allow a long position would be on a break above 1314.99 (this is where today’s resistance line falls); and that looks unlikely to happen today!
Another aspect of the analysis to consider is the weekly “Support” Line which I have added to today’s chart. It is the bright green line running across the chart from March’s low. It sits at 1262.66 today, marking a support zone with the Fibonacci line at 1268. If that area can’t hold the next support cluster is just under the previous lows at 1248-1258. Let’s see if we can hold the March lows.
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