The cash S&P500 formed a downtrending price bar on the daily chart Tuesday although we closed higher. Once again volume shrunk.Updating the issues discussed yesterday: The short moving average on the weekly chart has acted as strong overhead resistance during the past few weeks and now sits at 1288.95. Also, yesterday’s slight price rise (on a closing basis) was not quite enough to put a bullish spin on the monthly chart. If the bulls want to end August with a technical “buy” signal on the monthly chart they have to do better here -- and this is what the fight will be about over the next three trading sessions.
With a low yesterday of 1263.21 the bulls were able to hold 1261. It is interesting that the short-term battle to hold 1261 seems to be connected to the longer-term fight over the monthly chart. 1261 is important. However; even if they can hold that mark again today I don’t think it will amount to much of a rally here. I can’t see us going much above 1293 and I think we will see a decline that drops below 1261 by early September. In fact, we are now starting to stare at a re-test of the mid-July low; which I think will hold (at least on this retest). Bottom Line: I am short-term bearish.
The Wilder Directional Movement System continues to show price in a trading range (non-trending). The Parabolic SAR now stands at 1297.31. The under-development trading system (currently short from 1276.84) will be stopped out on a move today above the SAR.
No comments:
Post a Comment