Friday, 27 March 2009

Time and Price Resistance?

From the closing low on March 9 the cash S&P500 has now rallied for a Fibonacci 13 trading days. We are also right in the midst of a band of resistance (825-837) with a bearish divergence present between the RSI and Composite indicators.

From a time perspective I still feel it most likely (68% chance) that the wave up from the March 6 low of 666 will end by today. The low at 791.37 is the point that would mark a trend reversal. Under our current roadmap a move below that level would trigger a bearish stance.

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