We finished last week with an uptrending price bar that had a lower close. The failure to continue the rally from Thursday has the cash S&P500 remaining in a precarious position (as far as the bulls are concerned). Although we did manage to move above 949.38 before breaking 923.85, the latter level is still one the bulls need to hold or the lowest level price pulse trend would become bearish.
Based on the early morning futures it looks like a move below 934.13 today would confirm Friday’s qualified break of the TD Demand Line. The price projection associated with this break is 907.38. The overhead TD Supply Line stands at 949.31 and would be qualified if broken today.
Bottom Line: I think we are at the “do or die” point as far as the continuation of the rally from the end of March is concerned. A weak session today with a break below 923.85 would put the bears in control.
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