list.xml"> On the quarterly chart of the cash S&P500 we had an uptrending bar in 2Q2009…. The first one since the all time high in late 2007!
Overall the market continues to consolidate: since two retracement levels were violated in one quarter (4Q2008) we should then look for the market to either reverse or consolidate. Without a technical buy signal at the 1Q2009 low the consolidation is the more likely option. Currently the market is still in the process of determining what the demand level is for stocks after the huge decline of 2008. Note that the consolidation is occurring around the long moving average (now at 849.06).
Bottom Line: We still have at least three quarters to go before a potential bottom is in place. Being a longer-term investor this is driving my negative outlook on equities right now.
I will take a look at the new monthly chart over the weekend.
No comments:
Post a Comment