Looks Like a 2-4 Week Downleg Underway

Weakness continued in the cash S&P500 market yesterday as the index printed a down trending price bar on the daily chart. The decline both confirmed the recent break of the TD Demand Line and also met the minimum target of 1052.74. The low yesterday was at the 38.2% retracement level (see chart). Failure to stay in contact with the short moving average (red line) would open the door to challenge the TD Trend Factor target at 1002. The Weekly short moving average will be in that area as well next week.

If my analysis of the Level 2 price pulses is correct the odds are high that this current pullback will last another 2-4 weeks. It also implies that the move from the July 8 low of 683.2 is complete. Note that the 38.2% retracement of this rally is near the TD Trend Factor target of 1002.

Bottom Line: I am certainly not yet ready to call an end to the bull run from March but I am certainly in the bear camp for the near-term. 9-13-9 stop at 1084.05; Parabolic SAR at 1080.15. The point where I would say the bull run from March is in trouble is currently at 978.51. It will be an interesting look at the weekly chart this weekend as we begin to put this in perspective of the longer term charts. The new monthly (and even quarterly) are due soon also!