Weakest Day Since September 2 Low

Although we had yet another new high, Thursday was the weakest day in the cash S&P500 since this leg of the rally began on September 2. It was also bar #8 of a potential 9-13-9 “sell” pattern brewing on the daily chart. To get bar #9 and complete the pattern today requires a close above 1049.34. A move below 1056.52 will qualify a break of the TD Demand Line today; and, taken with a close above 1049.34, would confirm that a pullback/correction has started.

Bottom Line: Still bullish until at least the first new rally high on or after September 21. At that point I will re-evaluate my roadmap (see July 25 post) for the next 2-3 months. What I can say *today* is that it would take a move below the September 2 low to change my view to bearish.

P.S. on the World Gold Index. The daily chart has perfected a 9 bar TD Sell Setup and completed a TD Sequential “sell” countdown. The calculated risk level is at 1029.6. We reached 1024.7 before closing lower yesterday. The TD Demand line is at 1003.0 and will be qualified if broken today. A move below 1000.4 will “flip” the price trend to down. In addition, the RSI has now made bearish divergence with the Composite Index and the TD REI POQ will trigger a “sell” below 1007.2. Therefore, it still looks to me like this index wants to make at least a short/intermediate term double top with the February high. However; being a longer-term trader/investor, the bullishness on the monthly chart will not let me take any bearish action. If I was long I would be thinking about my stops (100.4?) very carefully here.