Will GDP Report Be Used to Rally the Market?

Yesterday was not a good day to be a bull as we had the weakest daily price action since the first day of the month. The down trending day in the cash S&P500 sliced through two downside targets. The only one remaining from those mentioned yesterday is 1016-22 where we have the last swing low, previous TDST Support, a TD Trend Factor target and the area to which the long (solid green) moving average is moving. Also note that the price action has now turned the swing chart (solid orange) down.

The bulls are now hanging on by a thread. For today all eyes will be on the GDP number released at 0830 EDT. Technically, the RSI is back down to 41, the area in which support is found “if” we are still in a bull market. Can the bulls hold here? The TD REI has now been less than -.40 for five sessions. Another session below that value indicates that a strong downtrend has developed. Can the bulls hold here?

With the market at key Price Pulse trend lines (on the Level 2 and 3 charts) the bulls have another reason to try and rally this market. It would not surprise me to see an oversold rally take hold here, especially if the GDP numbers are viewed as “better than expected”. But personally I expect such a rally to fail.

Working Road Map: With momentum indicators having failed and two versions of the Elliott Wave count showing large patterns having most likely completed, I think the odds that October 21 marked a significant top are quite high. Still neutral (since October 9th) but looking to get bearish. Here is my best guess for what happens over the coming days: The next short-term bottom (which is due this week) will lead to a push up that must complete by November 6 and most likely will fail to make a new high. I am looking for TD Sequential and/or Combo “sell” signals on that bounce to turn me short-term bearish. When would I turn outright bearish if we just continue down? Below 1019.95.