Jobs Report Day! Sequential 13 Day?

In no way would I be long here. That is what I said yesterday and I still mean it. I am not a day or short-term trader and so yesterday’s strong rally did not cause me angst. I remain neutral with an eye towards taking a bearish view.

Yesterday’s up trending price bar on the daily chart of the cash S&P500 made it through the two resistance levels I had been watching. It also was bar #12 in the TD Sequential Countdown process. Since we had a higher high yesterday the break of the daily TD Supply line (down sloping red dashed line) was confirmed with a price target of 1068.03 which we almost made yesterday.

No doubt today will be interesting; particularly with the much anticipated jobs report due out this morning. One item I am watching with interest is the Dollar Index. It has been moving inverse to the s&p’s since March. Now the Dollar index is on a Sequential bar #12 buy countdown while the equity market is on a bar #12 sell countdown! Coincidence? For today, to make their respective bar #13, the dollar index must trade below 75.50 (but not 74.9) and close below 76.07. For the cash S&P500 we need to trade above 1073.19 and close above 1061.00.

Bottom Line: I have been short-term neutral since October 9th and remain that way now; Waiting to see if we get a sequential signal here. I will not consider going to a long-term bearish stance unless 1019.95 is violated. 1019.95 comes from the monthly chart discussion posted last Saturday. It showed that if 1019.95 is broken the bears will have the upper hand with an initial downside objective between 910 and 940.