SPX Weekly Chart - 18 Feb 2011

     A 9-13-9 pattern completed on the daily chart on February 11. The rule of thumb is to look for a reaction within 4 bars of pattern completion. What if last Friday were the high? Is a reaction beginning on the fifth bar too late? Not according to the risk level associated with the 9-13-9 which is at 1345.5 and has not been violated. Once time has run out the signal is negated on any move above the risk level, and that hasn't happened yet.
     On the weekly chart (shown above) we have just completed a sequential 13 and so the charts are still warning of exhaustion. What specifics would turn each chart negative? On the daily the first step would be a break of the TD Demand Line (1344.31). Any printed price below that level would qualify the break.today. The next step would be a price flip - a closing price below 1328.01. A break of 1324.61 would be the first indication that the daily price pulse is on the verge of signaling a "sell".
     On the weekly chart the first step would also be a break of its TD Demand Line (1328.52). Any printed price below that level would qualify the break this week. The next step would be a price flip - a closing price below 1276.34. A break of 1321.87 would trigger a weekly price pulse "sell".
     Bottom Line: Taking all of the above into account, I would use any break of 1321.87 as the signal that the daily chart has turned bearish (daily price flip plus higher level price pulse signal). The weekly chart needs a price flip before it can be termed bearish. Until those criteria are met I believe that both charts remain in a bullish position.