Along with the '13' bar was a bearish divergence between the RSI (top pane) and Composite Index (middle pane). Now, on the bounce, the RSI has moved right into the area reserved for resistance in bear markets. Not that the RSI has signaled a bear trend on this chart yet, but often times such a signal will begin with a reversal in this area.
Next note the small blue arrows on both the price and RSI charts on January 28 and March 18. While the closing price was higher on March 18 than January 28 the RSI was lower. This is known as an RSI positive reversal and can be used to project a price target. Such a calculation yields 1345.87 which is slightly higher than the February top. And so a retest of the high is not unexpected. Keep in mind that these targets only work out if the underlying trend remains bullish - so there is good reason the monthly chart has us watching closely. The weekly chart is showing that a possible reversal took place at the February high or is at hand now.
Bottom Line: The weekly chart is in a bearish position. Will it stay that way? It will take a confirmed break of the 1363.53 risk level to return this chart to a bullish position. I will update the daily chart tomorrow.
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