Last Wednesday (May 11) we again closed below the short (red) moving average. That break was qualified (confirmed) the following day and by the hypothesis I am testing, this warned that we would see prices below 1332.03 by the end of this week. After an 'inside day' on Friday we got our lower prices yesterday. Now that we've closed below the medium (blue) moving average we need to see if today's price action can confirm that break.
Price has also made a confirmed break of the TD Demand Line (dashed green upsloping line) which indicates a price target of 1295.71 if the supply & demand situation does not change. Interestingly, this target is above the 1294.7 level we are eying on the weekly chart as ultimate short-term support. Above that level there are two support zones to watch. The first is a fibonacci cluster in the 1324-25 area. The weekly short moving average also lies in this zone. Secondly, there is a support zone in the area shown by the blue box. This includes TDST support, a prior gap, and the long (green) moving average. I expect one of these zones to hold followed by new highs before the April low can be violated.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter remains at +100%.
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