So far I would call the price action since the completed buy setup (on June 13) a consolidation, but we are now on the verge of breaking out to the upside. The hourly chart recorded a completed sell setup yesterday but didn't even pullback in response. This indicates that a full sequential countdown on that time frame is to be expected - which points to the rally continuing for at least another day or two.
The only fly in the ointment is that the break above the Supply line (downsloping red dashed line) yesterday was not qualified. Oftentimes this means that further consolidation is needed before a move can begin in earnest. In any event, the next upside target is the medium (blue) moving average in the 1303/4 area. Above that we find resistance in the 1313-16 area.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. My near term scenario assumes that an intermediate term low is in and that a choppy rally will now take us back above the 1344 level. However; I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, any break below the March low of 1249.05 will cause me to lighten my position even further as the allocation meter would fall to +25%.
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