Since my last daily update the cash SP500 has continued to move sharply higher. After reaching its sequential sell countdown, the hourly chart merely hesitated for five hours before resuming its march higher and validating a break above its risk level. We cleanly broke through resistance in the 1313-16 area and have closed above the Trend Factor (TF) target of 1338.12. While we wait to see if this break of the TF is validated (it is already qualified) there are two other items to watch to gauge if the bulls can continue their charge.
The first is overcoming TDST resistance at 1345.20 (red horizontal dashed line). Second is the action of the RSI. Note that if this is only a corrective thrust on the daily chart then we should not break above the bear market resistance zone of 63-67.
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. The market was very strong last week and is close to my target of 1344. However, I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for any sign of a potential top as we move into July.
No comments:
Post a Comment