After holding support at the medium (blue) moving average on Monday, the cash SP500 moved directly to the short (red) moving average yesterday; closing above it in a qualified manner. Will today see confirmation of that break? We are at interesting point since the challenge of the daily short moving average is occurring where we have TDST resistance (on the hourly chart) at 1326.88 - which is just above where we closed (1326.73).
The verdict on whether this hourly resistance and daily moving average will hold the bulls here will be given very early in today's session. However; for the more important hourly sequential buy countdown (which is still stuck on bar #11) the 1343.78 level is of extreme importance and so I don't necessarily think that the decline from the July 7 high is done if resistance doesn't hold this morning. In fact, from a price pulse point of view, the daily chart is now most likely in a delta pulse of a (still) bearish pattern. This would support the resistance failing this morning. But note that if beta bottomed at Monday's low the pattern is still not bullish unless we then go on to exceed the alpha high (which is what I am doubting the bulls will be able to do).
That 1343.78 level just mentioned is associated with the still active TDST resistance level on the daily chart at 1345.20. If this resistance area is not breached (in a qualified and confirmed manner) then i expect that the current rally from Monday's low will run out of steam and be followed by another drive down towards the Trend Factor target of 1281.06 (shown on the chart).
Bottom Line: The allocation mix meter is at +50%. I remain quite concerned that the rally high from the 2009 low was made on May 2. As such, I will be watching closely for confirmation that the July 7th high was the top of a counter trend rally.
1 comment:
Saxby, I'm taking a bit wider view here. Your weekly TFA held fairly well on the first down thrust in the 1265 area even tho it was briefly penetrated by 6 or seven points. The upthrusting weekly TFA would by my book be at 1342.20 which I suspect is the upside target here. I would then expect a down thrust into next week at the very least to put in a lower close on the weekly. That would be a close lower than 13 previous closes from the high which would confirm a leg 1/A down in progress under Perl's version of D Wave. Such a move would also fit in very nicely with a Daily Countdown finish that you mention.
As always, I appreciate your posts. You often present viewpoints I've not considered and I find that helpful.
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